Ra^therGate: A lesson from two Johns

When the British economist John Maynard Keynes was criticized by an interviewer for having repeatedly changed his mind throughout his career, he answered: “When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir?”

Presidential candidate John Kerry is also known for revising his positions on important issues, and the most flattering justification for these changes is that they are responses to changing facts.

It is somewhat surprising, therefore, to see how reluctant senator Kerry's supporters are to emulate their candidate and reassess their positions in response to new evidence. In the four days that have passed since 60 Minutes aired a story on the president's National Guard service, the facts have changed mightily, but many Kerry supporters continue to cling to their first impressions.

There are numerous pro-Kerry blogs that I could use to make this observation, but I've chosen The Daily Kos because it is popular and I'm somewhat familiar with it.

Last Wednesday night, CBS's 60 Minutes built a critical story on president Bush's National Guard service around four memos ostensibly written by his commanding officer in 1972 and 1973.

At the time, Bush opponents were delighted.

On Saturday, after several bloggers had raised questions about the authenticity of the memos, The Daily Kos derided the critics and reaffirmed their belief in that authenticity, citing a Boston Globe article titled "Authenticity backed on Bush documents." But the Daily Kos still does not link to an interview with the Globe's main expert source, published just hours later, in which that source flatly contradicts the impression given by the Globe and says he is convinced the documents are forgeries.

To its credit, The Daily Kos did update its Saturday morning post to link to a Washington Post article pointing out a separate repudiation of the memos. The Post article notes:

Retired Maj. Gen. Bobby W. Hodges, who was cited by a senior CBS official on Thursday as the network's "trump card" in verifying the documents, said in an interview that he was "misled" by CBS and believes the documents to be forgeries.

But tonight, despite these two repudiations, The Daily Kos has another post in which the authenticity of the memos is taken as an unchallenged truth, just as though the past four days hadn't happened at all.

To support its belief in the authenticity of the memos, Kos cites a Time Magazine article that quotes a former typewriter repairman. This man apparently recalls some typewriters that had some of the kinds of features displayed in the memos. He does not demonstrate, or even allege, that the typewriters he has in mind would produce precise matches to the memos.

So the main source presented by CBS to defend its reporting, and the leading forensic typography analyst presented by the Globe to defend CBS, both call the memos forgeries. Nevertheless, Time magazine and The Daily Kos would prefer to give credence to the inconclusive remarks of a former typewriter repairman.

In the meantime, a computer typography expert has come out with a lengthy analysis explaining why he has also concluded the memos to be forgeries.

Despite this and other evidence (see "Back to the CBS memos") pointing to fraud, Kos readers have decided to cling to their original impressions.

Given their steadfast resolve in the face of contrary evidence, you have to wonder why they've chosen a candidate with such fluidity of opinion.