Palestine/Israel After Arafat

Yasser Arafat died early Friday morning, Paris time, November 11th, 2004.

The good news is that there is already talk of elections, which the U.S. has long been calling for but which Arafat rejected.

The bad news is that democracy and the rule of law are not the same thing. Last October, a public opinion poll found that three quarters of Palestinians supported the suicide bombing at an Israeli restaurant that deliberately targeted and killed 21 civilians, including four children.

A Palestinian government, elected or otherwise, that gives free reign to that support for the targeting of civilians will not lead to peace.

The tin-lining in that poll is that: "If an agreement is reached on a mutual cessation of violence, 59% (compared to 50% last June [i.e., 2003, ed.]) would support taking measures by the PA to prevent attacks on Israelis."

If Palestinians want the American people to rally to the cause of the two-state solution, they will have more success taking the cessation of violence route than the continued intifada route.