I Got Yer Prognostication Right Here, Pal

Next Monday will see the release of the latest international test results from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Rather than wait to editorialize on them, I decided it would be more interesting to predict what the results will be, and why.

My sooth-saying is the current commentary at the Mackinac Center's website. Here's a taste:

Asian Food for Thought

Monday is the release date for the fourth- and eighth-grade results from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, a set of exams given to students from dozens of countries all over the world. Here is the news we’re likely to hear: Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong will be clustered at the top of the international heap. U.S. fourth-grade students will perform at about the average for industrialized nations, while U.S. eighth-grade students will be below the average for industrialized nations — possibly far below it. If U.S. high school seniors had been tested, they probably would be near the bottom of the heap.
The well-established academic excellence of the Asian nations listed above is usually attributed to a combination of well-designed public school curricula and education-friendly cultures. Both play important roles, leading to outstanding science and math textbooks and an emphasis on hard work in academics. But perhaps the most decisive factor of all in Asia’s educational excellence is seldom discussed in America: the region’s enormous consumption of private, parent-funded tutoring.
Japan is a classic example. By the time Japanese students enter the 9th grade, more than 70 percent of them have spent time in tutoring schools called "juku." In urban centers like Tokyo, the figure is closer to 90 percent, according to education researcher Delwyn Harnisch. More than 6.5 million students were enrolled in one of the nation’s 50,000 juku in 2002. Tutoring sessions typically range from 7 to 15 hours per week.
Juku are often dismissed as "cram schools" because many focus on preparing students for Japanese college and high school entrance exams that typically represent the overwhelming factor in admissions decisions. The crushing pressure to perform well on these tests has undeniably fueled the expansion of the $12 billion-per-year juku industry.
But the diversity and effectiveness of academic juku are grossly underestimated in the West. Most juku fulfill a broader mission than simple test preparation: They compensate for the unforgiving rigidity of the nation’s government schools. [...]