Pakistani Madrassa Enrollment Lower than Believed

Madrassas are Islamic schools that teach the Koran, usually in its original Arabic. A minority of these schools, estimated at perhaps 10 percent by most international terrorism experts, inculcate their students with militant Islamist views (e.g., that a strict Islamist theocracy is the only legitimate form of government and must be imposed by force if necessary).

Estimates of madrassa enrollment in Pakistan vary wildly, ranging from 600,000 to 1.7 million students and from perhaps 10 percent to 33 percent of total student enrollment.

A recent World Bank study concludes that all of these figures are overstated. Combining published census data with a new survey of several Punjabi districts, it puts the number of madrassa students at between 250,000 and 475,000. That equates to somewhere between one and two percent of the nation's total student population.

Of particular note is that there appears not to have been a major surge in madrassa enrollment following September 11th, as is widely believed. There was an uptick in madrassa enrollment during the late seventies and early-to-mid eighties, however, when the United States teamed up with Pakistan to encourage a jihad against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. (I have written on this subject, and on ways to promote the consumption of practical, secular schooling in Pakistan for the Cato Institute).

Other interesting findings are that madrassa enrollment is only correlated with family income when there are no public or (secular) private schools in the area. That is, contrary to the common belief (which I previously accepted), the poor living in cities, towns, and many villages are no more likely to send their children to madrassas than are middle and upper income families. Only in rural villages that lack public or secular private schools are the poor somewhat more likely than their wealthier neighbors to send children to a madrassa.